# The ad-pocalypse cometh

*Hello friends! You likely signed up for this after reading one of my
essays on Medium. I send this thing every few months, mostly a wrap-up
of stuff I'm working on, thinking about, and the best reading from
around the web — all ending with a sweet flag. See past
issues *[*here*](http://tinyletter.com/blanda/archive?utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh)*.
Now, to the newsletter:*\
![The NYC city skyline](../images/2840f6541b84.jpg)

*Above: New York from the Wythe Hotel in Brooklyn.*

\
I’ll be honest, I’ve sat on this newsletter for a few weeks because I’m
worried about how it will read. But here we go anyway.\
 \
I’ve been pretty angsty about the current media environment in the U.S.
and all of its side effects. You could even say I’ve been old-man cranky
about it all.\
\
It feels like things are fundamentally broken, that the incentive
structure for online media is poisonous, and that we’re suffering for
the problem with our politics. I’m bummed because I feel like a fatalist
— like the solutions are impossible because it requires a total
rethinking of the way things work, especially around revenue models (I
wrote about
that [here](http://seanblanda.com/media/politics/2017/01/15/Medium-and-the-reason-you-cant-stand-the-news.html?utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh) in
January).\
 \
So, I’ve taken to asking friends if they feel the same, and the answer
is almost always a resounding and relieving “yeah, me too.”  So, I’d
like to expand the question to you: **Do you feel frustrated with the
current media climate? Tell me about it.**\
 \
I can’t help but think that all of this unhappiness will bring some sort
of cataclysm to relationship between publishers, platforms, and
advertising — and that's the theme of this issue. The rumblings are
there (as you’ll see in the links below), and I suspect that the
ad-pocalypse is near.\
 \
Okay, whining over.\
 \
(Just kidding, the whining shall continue.)\
 \
***Emptying the draft folder….***\
 \
I have a handful of half-completed essays about online editorial and the
news ecosystem that don’t quite deserve 1,000 words. So, a new
semi-annual tradition here: I’m going to empty out my draft folder and
share them with you, each containing a prediction about the months to
come.\
 \
**Prediction \#1: Single-purpose news sites.**\
 \
Those of us that write things on the internet assume our readers have
the same hyper-complex mental model of how the web works that we do. But
to the average reader, the nuances aren’t as obvious.\
 \
Both opinion and reported news articles are on nytimes.com with the *New
York Times* masthead. The TV cable pundit who is a paid party operative
is on the same network as the serious investigative journalist. The
consequences of this confusion are compounding as the editorial
ecosystem matures, leading to broader confusion around the credibility
of EVERY news outlet.\
![tweets about opinion sections](../images/a5ffcfa604e4.png)![more
tweets](../images/e81478a3115f.png)Prediction: News outlets will begin
to take steps to protect their newsrooms from complaints lobbed at their
opinion sections. This will result in news sites that only, well, report
the news while analysis is spun off into wholly separate brands. And
when you see these brands on social media or on television there will be
no ambiguity.\
 \
Prediction** #2: The apolitical backlash**\
 \
*Teen Vogue* now routinely publishes political essays ([and a “Woke
Letter”](http://www.teenvogue.com/newsletter/subscribe?newsletterId=248815&utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh)).
ESPN is [facing
criticism](http://nypost.com/2017/04/27/sportscenter-anchor-agrees-politics-are-hurting-espn/?utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh)
for [its increasingly political
tone](http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/447202/heres-some-evidence-espns-politics-are-impacting-its-audience?utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh)
(and its puzzling, from a mission perspective, investment in *538*).
Russ Douthat
[observed](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/21/opinion/campaign-stops/clintons-samantha-bee-problem.html?utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh)
before the election, “Institutions that were seen as outside or sideways
to political debate have been enlisted in the culture war” and his
observation seems more prescient each day.\
 \
I have a half-baked theory: Most writers, at the end of the day, want to
create things their friends like. To beat a dead horse: most writers at
these publications are from a narrowing number of backgrounds. They also
need content to spread on social media, a medium that rewards emotion.
What better way to do that than writing about political issues? But
what's important or "right" to writers doesn't always line up with
public opinion.\
\
(One case: That "controversial" Pepsi ad? It worked. [45% of people had
a more favorable view of Pepsi after viewing compared to 25% less
favorable](https://www.buzzfeed.com/leticiamiranda/turns-out-that-a-lot-of-people-kind-of-liked-kendall?utm_term=.cs9YEDlkq&utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh#.cb9XQVwqn).)\
 \
Brands like *Teen Vogue* and ESPN are ceding the apolitical ground and
thus, some of their audience. I suspect there will be a group of next
generation media companies that pick up what publications like these are
leaving behind, serving audiences that are not being served well by
modern online media. The apolitical backlash is coming. (Or, worst case,
there will be a coastal and heartland version of everything).\
 \
Prediction **\#3: The rise of the mini-brands**\
 \
The recent news about Nautilus’ struggles (more below) are just another
reminder: the current economics of the web often don't support
labor-intensive editorial strategies that focus religiously on quality.
If you want to play the sponsored content or scale advertising game, you
may be in luck. But if you’d rather not cater to the whims of social
media and SEO practices, it gets difficult.\
 \
However, the economics of the web DO support small staffs with focused
missions and audiences. I expect that more people will spin off more
“micro-brands” with less than 20 staff all focusing on a specific niche
or audience (i.e. no “general interest” brands). These brands will take
little or no venture capital money, and will derive a significant
portion of revenue from direct reader payments (events, subscriptions,
products, courses). They will rely less on platforms like Facebook,
Google, and YouTube and attempt to reclaim websites as destinations
largely using email.\
 \
***Must-read links:***\
 \
**One sign of the ad-pocalypse**: Publishers are starting to revolt
against platforms (remember kids, always own your platform). *The
Chicago Tribune* writes how Facebook [has suddenly throttled the traffic
it was sending
there](https://medium.com/@kurtgessler/facebooks-algorithm-isn-t-surfacing-one-third-of-our-posts-and-it-s-getting-worse-68e37ee025a3?utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh).
Publishers like the *New York Times* [have also begun to pull out of
Instant
Articles](http://digiday.com/media/facebook-faces-increased-publisher-resistance-instant-articles?utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh)
when they “found that links back to the Times’ own site monetized better
than Instant Articles.” But guys, don’t worry, Facebook [totally cares
about
you](https://twitter.com/Kantrowitz/status/854416424105787392?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fmashable.com%2F2017%2F04%2F19%2Ffacebook-embrace-journalism-someone-tell-their-algorithms%2F&utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh).
🙄\
 

*Also: don’t worry Facebook, [it looks like publishers are getting tired
of Pinterest
too](http://digiday.com/media/pinpricks-pinterest-publishers-arent-getting-along/?utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh).
Choice quote: “We’ve yet to find anyone over \[at Pinterest\] who can
actually talk to you about driving organic traffic.” Ouch.*

 \
**Another sign of the ad-pocalypse**: Yahoo’s demise is a sign of things
to come. With Google and FB collecting 85 percent of all ad revenue,
what’s left for the rest of us? [From *The
Atlantic*](https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/04/yahoos-demise-is-a-death-knell-for-digital-news-orgs/523692/?utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh):
“If you run a business that relies on digital-advertising revenue for an
outsized portion of your funding, you need to find new streams of
revenue. Now. It may already be too late.”\
 \
**On the surface, the science magazine Nautilus is doing everything
right**: Its writing has won a number of awards, its site is
well-trafficked, its articles boast incredible design and depth, and the
brand is much-respected amongst both scientific and media communities.
Yet, the magazine is [behind on its payments to
contributors](https://undark.org/2017/04/29/award-winning-nautilus-enters-rough-waters?utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh) and
if it doesn't receive additional funding, could be in serious trouble.\
 \
**Ever notice those “stories from around the web” blocks** that are at
the end of most articles? Chances are, those articles were served up via
Outbrain or Taboola, who are now [reportedly in merger
talks](https://techcrunch.com/2017/04/28/report-content-recommendation-companies-taboola-and-outbrain-are-in-advanced-merger-talks/?utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh).
[According to
Datanyze](https://www.datanyze.com/market-share/content-syndication-networks?utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh),
the combined entity would be the second biggest player in the space.
Less competition = not good for publishers.\
 \
**One of the rays of hope here is *The Outline*** which is avoiding
scale while [designing articles and ads for actual
humans](https://theoutline.com/post/1438/life-after-death-your-media-business-will-still-not-be-saved?utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh).
As with any media brand there are still questions: Who, exactly, is the
audience for Outline? Haven’t seen many many other people claim they
have “better ads” only to retreat to the mean? Haven’t readers shown to
be ambivalent about a well-designed article page? The current triumph of
The Outline isn’t its "success." It’s that somewhere out there a group
of smart people are trying something different. As founder Josh Topolsky
writes “No one has all the answers, but very few people are even trying
to get them.” We could use more people trying to get them.\
 

*Also from the Outline: [The web looks like
shit](https://theoutline.com/post/1165/the-web-looks-like-shit?utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh).*

 \
**The reason the web looks like shit? Ads.** [A browser named Brave
comes with built in
ad-blocking](https://brave.com/?utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh)
and is attempting to change the economy of the web with something it
calls “[Basic Attention
Tokens](https://basicattentiontoken.org/?utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh).”
I’ve used it on and off for the past two weeks. So far so good!\
 \
**Speaking of trying awesome new things, the app Hooked invented an
entire new way of presenting fiction** as text message conversations.
The company calls it “chat fiction” and they have been rewarded with
[the \#1 spot in the Books category of the App
Store](https://medium.com/@prernagupta/how-we-got-10-million-teens-to-read-fiction-on-their-phones-19a2a475084c?utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh).\
 \
**Another sign of the ad-pocalypse: Not only are the ads ugly, they
don’t even work**. My friend Sapna Maheshwari writes in the *New York
Times* how Chase cut the sites it was advertising on from 400,000 to
5,000 and [THE RESULTS WERE THE
SAME](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/29/business/chase-ads-youtube-fake-news-offensive-videos.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fsapna-maheshwari&action=click&contentCollection=undefined®ion=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=2&p&utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh).\
 

*Also: Sapna also speaks with P&G’s chief brand officer Marc Pritchard
[on his frustration with
ads](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/09/business/media/marc-pritchard-procter-gamble-digital-advertising.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fsapna-maheshwari&action=click&contentCollection=undefined®ion=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPl&utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh).
Choice quote: “a big thing is if \[our ad is\] showing up in content we
want to be associated with. That’s one piece of it, but the other piece
of it is, is it showing up in a place where people are actually viewing
it? So, is it a bot or is it a person? Is it showing up in a place where
there’s enough traffic for it to be worth it?”*

 \
**My buddy Tom Critchlow** [writes about what makes good
content](http://tomcritchlow.com/2017/04/20/context-collapse/?utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh)
when all context is lost. In a word: brand.\
 \
**The consequence of the media industry’s revenue crisis is often seen
as an industry problem**. But the effects reverberate beyond writers and
journalists. The resulting budget crunch has centralized much of our
media production on the coasts. And, well, [you know what happens
next](http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/04/25/media-bubble-real-journalism-jobs-east-coast-215048?utm_content=buffer1fcb6&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer).\
 \
**This isn’t just a news/content thing**. In music, [bands made more
money in 2015 from vinyl than from
streaming](https://www.thenation.com/article/the-corporatization-of-the-web-has-thinned-out-our-culture-and-undermined-american-democracy/?utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh).\
 \
**When the phone company became too big, the U.S. government broke it
up**. Should we [think about doing the same to Google and
Facebook](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/22/opinion/sunday/is-it-time-to-break-up-google.html?utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh)?\
 \
\*cut to me nodding aggressively\*\
 \
***Personal Update:***\
 \
My new gig as the editor in chief of *GrowthLab* and *I Will Teach You
to Be Rich* is moving along swimmingly. More insights from this process
to come soon. But in the meantime, I’m in search of guest posts for both
sites. Things I’m looking for in particular:

1.  **Entrepreneurial case studies**. Do you own an online business? I’d
    love to talk to you about your product, how it affects your
    lifestyle, and how you got started.
2.  **What it takes to be a “top performer**.” Are you among the best in
    your field? I want to hear from you. I’m looking to go behind the
    scenes of those who are at the top of… well, anything. Whether it’s
    working out, careers, money. Anything. 

Sound like you? Respond to this email and let’s talk. I have a budget to
commission pieces.\
 \
***Official newsletter flag (for now):***\
 \
![Antarctic flag](../images/0255cbdc1246.png) \
We like to tell children to be anything they want to be, and to live the
life they want to live. Whitney Smith [actually followed
through](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/22/us/whitney-smith-whose-passion-for-flags-became-a-career-dies-at-76.html?utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh).
Obsessed with flags since he was a young boy, Smith dedicated his entire
life to studying and promoting the things. He gave the study of flags
its official name (vexillology), designed the official flag of Guyana,
founded the [Flag Heritage
Foundation](http://www.flagheritagefoundation.org/?utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh),
and edited the Flag Bulletin. Pictured above, his design for the
Antarctic flag lost out to [this
version](http://www.ats.aq/documents/recatt/att094_e.pdf?utm_source=Blanda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-ad-pocalypse-cometh)
as the official continent emblem in 2002. According to Wikipedia, it was
designed to look unlike any other nation’s flag, to signify Antarctica’s
location on a standard globe, and to stand out in the snow.\
 \
Dear reader you stand out better than any orange flag Whitney Smith
could come up with. Thank you for getting to the end of the longest-ever
edition of this newsletter. \<3\
 \
-Sean\
 \